[Note: I am in the initial stages of formulating predictive models for the US College Meltdown and invite anyone to provide constructive feedback. ]
Professionals in higher education may deny that a US College Meltdown is occurring, but that doesn't mean it's not happening. Arguably, a few variables related to the phenomenon have improved since 2009, but that's not a return to a healthy situation. That's why I have written about two dozen articles on the phenomenon.
When I speak of College Meltdown, I am referring to the slow-moving decline of US colleges, which includes the following variables: (1) increased college debt, (2) decreased gainful employment, (3) declines in returns on investment, (4) increased student loan non-repayments, (5) increased student defaults, (6) reduced college enrollment numbers, (7) declines in entrance standards, (8) reductions in college revenues, (9) increased use of debt to fund colleges, (10) reductions in instructional staff and instructional pay, (11) increases in class size, (12) college program closing, (13) selling of institutional assets, (14) college consolidations, and (15) institutional closings.
These College Meltdown Variables are influenced by a variety of macroeconomic and social variables, including: (1) age demographics, (2) family size, (3) family wealth, (4) state and local allocations, (5) federal allocations, (6) employment participation, (7) median and quintile personal income, (8) K-12 preparedness for college, and (9) immigration numbers.
For me, the question is not whether a meltdown is occurring, but how quickly it is developing, and what colleges are in the greatest danger of failing.
In developing predictive equations, we must understand that models must consider the dynamic and somewhat unpredictable nature of human behavior. For example, as more working class and middle class people recognize that college is a high risk investment for themselves, a number will choose to opt out of or delay college participation, choose community colleges for the first two years of schooling, or select other majors.
Rational Choice is a questionable theory for understanding college choice.Theories of asymmetrical information and sunken investment, however, suggest that people may continue to make less sub-optimal decisions about college choice even as they gain knowledge.
College administrations can also change their behaviors to survive and thrive in a more competitive environment.
Estimation of performance
Originally posed on Linked IN by: Dahn Shaulis
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